Ray Kurzweil, Inventor & Visionary: Why is he invisible?

ray_lightI’d heard about Ray Kurzweil and his synthesizer invention many years ago due to his collaboration with Stevie Wonder. His invention also spawned a new music technology business. Then the invention of his reading machine for the blind created a new education technology company and so on. This is a man that has accomplished a *great* deal in his life to date…and I’m convinced there’s a lot more to come.

A PCWorld interview with Ray Kurzweil introduced him like this: “Technology pioneer, entrepreneur, and futurist Ray Kurzweil, 56, invented the flatbed scanner, developed the first text-to-speech reading machine for the blind, helped develop omnifont optical character recognition, and was the first to market large-vocabulary speech recognition technology, among many other achievements. He has won numerous prizes and awards, including the Lemelson-MIT Prize, the nation’s largest award for invention and innovation, and the 1999 National Medal of Technology from President Bill Clinton. In his latest book, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (Rodale Books), Kurzweil and coauthor Terry Grossman, MD, explain how new technologies will push human life spans into virtual immortality.

His book, “The Age of Spiritual Machines” is one of my favorites. After reading it I was compelled to explore more about this man so as to add to my own understanding of him and gauge the credibility of his predictions. This search took me to his KurzweilAI web site (AI for Artificial Intelligence) and I’ve spent some quality time there.

My point? Kurzweil is a visionary and he has the credentials and achievements like this and this that, in my mind, lend credibility to his prognostications. Some are interesting, others delightful, and still others disturbing. We should at least pay serious attention to him.

One more thing: how come hardly anyone I know has any clue who this man is or what he’s accomplished? For example, my 10 year old son is doing a school project where he’s supposed to choose from four “heroes” biographies from which he’ll choose one, perform additional research on this person and complete a packet. The list includes numerous historical and current figures in athletics, science, politics, medicine, space, etc.) that have made an unquestionable impact on humankind (Jackie Robinson, Alexander Graham Bell, Marie Curie, Louis Pasteur, Mother Teresa, Sally Ride). Only a handful of those on the list are currently living and I submit we have heroes in our midst right now.

Curiously, there are only a handful of scientists on the list and, most disturbingly, no living ones. I’m going to send my son’s teacher a note and ask why. I’m also going to suggest Ray Kurzweil is added to the list for the future as well as inquire as to whether or not the definition of heroism and hero is being discussed so these kids have a context from which to judge heroism and heroic acts. For me, Ray Kurzweil has made a considerable impact and is a hero in my book.

Also, it’s disturbing that my son could rattle off — from a high level though — what most of the people on the heroes list did and for what they were known. He does, however, know details of the top ten video games. The hottest kids books. The must-see-TV. All the superheroes. But he’d never heard of Ray Kurzweil.

Have Gates and Ballmer become timid? Is the browser dead?

MICROSOFT GATESAre Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer afraid of the open source Firefox team and unable to make Internet Explorer competitive? Is Microsoft rolling over and acquiesing to governments embracing open standards and open source software? Are they becoming weak and terrified about the open source paradigm shift?

Hah…don’t believe it for a second.

Increasingly I’ve watched as Microsoft continues to deliver ways to tie their cash-cow OS and desktop tools and drive them toward functioning as primary gateways to their own back-end apps & infrastructure (server products and .Net strategy) as well as enterprise applications and the internet as a whole. I’ve also observed the momentum with open standards and open source software — and the number of articles published implying that Microsoft is really, really frightened.

But think about it. Why has MSFT let Firefox gain browser market share so fast and why aren’t they embarrassed by this gain? Could it be that they no longer see the browser as a strategic, controllable gateway and don’t really care? Maybe they have something else up their sleeve that is more profound, say, tying the OS and Office to back-office applications, infrastructure, the ‘net, and everything else with the Information Worker Bridge? Will we soon see an acceleration in tools capability within Visual Studio to access the Information Bridge Framework making development of wide ranging and wholly encompassing killer applications a reality?

Reading Slashdot.org this morning I saw an article about how Microsoft has opened up the XML schemas in Microsoft Office 2003. Besides this move allowing them to potentially fend off the encroaching open source movement and Linux specifically, is this also a strategic way for them to tie the OS and desktop to the open source movement while they’re positioning themselves to be the gateway for everything else? This sure seems to me to be a *very* smart, strategic move on their part.

MSFT owns the desktop. In my opinion they’re seeing IE and the browser as being a non-issue for a user interface (UI) and they’re clearly positioning Office, the OS itself and their applications (leveraging XML and .NET strategies) to be the defacto UI to tie the internet, web services, enterprise applications (and everything digital) to a MSFT management model. Could the web browser be dead? Could a new model emerge — embedded in Longhorn v. 2.0 — that leverages all data models and provides the tools and infrastructure to glue them all together?

Even with the visible and public moves by MSFT (competition in public search and the battle of Microsoft vs. Google, alongside the fundamental research they’re doing, and the yanking of WinFS search from Longhorn) I’m gonna bet they’ve got some superUI, new data model builder on the horizon and it’ll just take them a bit more time to get there.

Listen to me! Watch me! Read me!

eyes_ear_1There are more media choices now than ever before and I, for one, have too many. You got your DirecTV with TiVo; your podcasts; your Web; your books; and maybe soon your “iTunes for movies.”

I just finished listening to the latest Gillmor Gang podcast off of IT Conversations, and the discussion “was about the convergence of radio (most notably public radio) and “new media” if that term even makes sense any longer. That convergence is due to digital technologies and the fact that it’s now possible for nearly anyone to create broadcast-quality audio with a very small investment in equipment.

Fascinating stuff — and pretty exciting to anticipate what might come out of people’s homes or studios as new content (podcasts are just one type proliferating) as well as how accessible the world of media offerings might be in the near future. Though this on-demand media accessibility is pretty cool, I just wish I had time to listen, watch and read everything I want to consume. Heck…I just want to download and listen to the other podcasts available on IT Conversations (though I must admit to already having about 10 hours worth waiting for me on my iPod right now).

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Food for thought: marketing as a conversation…

mktgI’m constantly on-the-hunt for new ways of doing things. The first place I came upon thinking about new ways was Doc Searls discussions about ‘marketing as a conversation’ vs. one way broad-or-narrowcasting messages to an audience without any feedback loop.

A great introduction to this idea (or set of ideas) is in Doc and his colleagues’ book The Cluetrain Manifesto. Well worth a read.

Today Doc linked to a Small Business Branding Manifesto from Michael Pollock as one guiding set of ideas on this subject. Also worth a read and great food for thought.

With so many people depending upon the ‘net for communication — and especially gathering information on product before they buy — it will be very interesting to see how marketing as a discipline morphs over time to accomodate people’s new ways of making buying decisions, molding and changing products themselves, and ensuring their voices are heard (other than simply voting-with-their-pocketbooks by not buying).

Besides all of the review sites that test and rate products and services, there is a new “back channel” comprised of bloggers who are posting rage, feedback and/or observations about product and services. For many years I’ve been very interested in beta programs for software….download and try it and give user feedback to the company or group developing the software so they can make it better. It’s a great way to put a product through its paces. But the intriguing part of this is finished product and how even *it* is kinda, sorta beta and being increasingly influenced by the instant observations and opinions that fly around the Web by bloggers.

A great example of this is how the cellular telephony providers are allegedly forcing mobile phone manufacturer’s to cripple Bluetooth (supposedly so users can’t use the cell network for hooking up their laptop for data access). I understand why they’re doing this (to preserve their bandwidth and upsell stuff like ringtones vs. allowing PC users to Bluetooth transmit midi files of their own creation to their mobile phones). A lot of people are upset about this as evidenced by this and this and this. I haven’t yet seen any manufacturer respond to the base of upset customers, but if it impacts adoption of particular Bluetooth-enabled phones, they will.

I fully expect that this new model of the masses weighing in on products and services — in effect engaging in a marketing dialogue with the creators and deliver’s of these products and services — to fundamentally alter and shape what ends up on real or virtual store shelves.

Are we killing our future?

I promised myself that I was going to stay away from religion and politics on my blog and instead concentrate on technology and other future trends — and leverage my own happy-ass optimistic side and write about fun stuff.

But I’ve been doing a lot of reading tonight. When I think about the future — and especially the one my kids will inherit — our accelerating budget deficit scares me. Offshoring and the possibility it will be two or more generations before the world experiences equilibrium with wages and skills and the U.S. creates new industries that will accelerate full employment of American workers (like my children) concerns me. Sarbanes Oxley causing business leaders to bend over for regulatory anal probes causing cost concerns and roadblocks to innovation gives me pause.

When it comes to technology and the future trends I get jazzed about, the network effect helps ensure that knowledge, innovation and the means for producing it becomes less and less dependent upon geography and more upon discovering ‘openings’ in markets and opportunities to disrupt or take over markets as they are maturing. Those who are doing this disruption and takeover are not necessarily in the United States of America.

Hmmm…not sure where I’m headed with this post or these thoughts. But without a strong dollar, an economy continuing to be open to innovation, and the infrastructure and workers with skills to take us in to the future, then it’s likely the future bloggers connecting the dots will have names like Pramadur Rangnekar, Yong Hahn, or Takumi Shou.
       
 

Macintosh in 1983 (Wait! Wasn’t it intro’ed in 1984 on the Superbowl?)

bowtiesteve_2Today’s article on Slashdot about Steve Jobs introducing the Macintosh in 1984 really brought back memories!

My recollection wasn’t just about the Superbowl ad in January of 1984 — though that was really cool and the top ad ever — instead it was about my being in Hawaii in November of 1983 for the Apple International Sales Meeting called “Leading the Way” (I was a manufacturer’s rep for a firm that setup dealer distribution for Apple before they were able to hire their own direct sales force). Besides this event being really fun with my colleagues hanging out in Honolulu, we were learning good stuff and getting ready to sell more Apple products upon our return.

gates_kaporjay_1On (I think) the second day there, Steve Jobs introduced the Macintosh to the company, showed us the soon-to-be-famed Superbowl ad, and had Bill Gates, Mitch Kapor (of Lotus fame) and Fred Gibbons (Software Publishing…a big PC vendor) on the stage talking about their support for this new, cool computer.

Right after the introduction, we had breakout sessions. Susan Kare led my breakout session. Steve Jobs led my buddy Eric Johnson’s session (fun fact to know-n-tell: Steve wore the same thing every day: hunter green Ralph Lauren polo shirt; jeans; sandals).

That evening we took buses to a beach location where the company had set up a M.A.S.H setup like the TV show — complete with tents, nurses, jeeps, and great food. WWII helicopters landed with Steve Jobs and John Sculley…that’s how they made their appearance.

1984_girlA couple of months later and knowing that the 1984 Superbowl ad was going to run, I eagerly anticipated its arrival. It so happened I was at a friends house for a big Superbowl party when the ad came on. The room went silent and everyone watched. The reaction was pretty dramatic!

All I can say is that — as cool as the Macintosh was — I was still more enamored at the time with the power of the Mac’s “big sister” and predecessor the Lisa. At $10,000 it was overpowered and overpriced…and it was never going to make it as a mass market product.

g_borsch_car

It’ll be fun one day to tell my grandchildren about being there at the beginning (sort of…woulda been cooler to have built the product!). Things have sure changed in the computing arena and my kids already are unable to fathom a floppy-disk based computer printing to a dot-matrix printer.

Even when *I* think about it, I recall my Dad in the 1970′s talking about my Grandpa’s first Ford which, even then, felt like ancient history…kind of like me talking to my kids today about a Macintosh in 1984.

Are you naked? (Your WiFi network, that is)

WiFi exploded on to the scene in July of 1999 when Apple introduced the "Airport" 802.11b WiFi products, at an unheard of price point ($299) and a nice user interface allowing normal humans (i.e., non-propellerheads) to get the thing configured and operable.

Over the next several years, growth of wireless devices accelerated in to the tens of millions of units. Virtually everyone I know — when we discuss having a home wireless network — always talks about how delightful it is to be laying in bed with their laptop, on the sofa, the deck, or wherever they happen to be.

But there’s a dark side.

I can’t tell you how often I’ve been somewhere with my PC laptop (and run NetStumbler) or my Powerbook (running MacStumbler) and discovered the volume of WiFi networks that are *wide open* (meaning someone plugged them in with the factory defaults and didn’t bother or didn’t know how to set a password). Couple that with the fact that alot of these same people don’t have a firewall running on their computers, and this is like leaving your front door open when you’re gone for the evening.

I’m secure. I have buddies who give me a bad time about it though since I have WiFi Protected Access (WPA), my SSID not being broadcast so my network is ‘invisible’, and the MAC addresses from the specific computers I want to allow on my network entered in my systems so I block others. They think I’m "over-secured."

Security is an issue other than just at home
…but it’s an underreported problem in internet cafes or public places that leave their networks wide open so it’s easy to get on them. Without a company Virtual Private Network (VPN) for your personal laptop, or some way to create a Secure Shell (SSH) to another computer for a secure tunnel, you’re vulnerable to prying eyes (email passwords go in the clear, etc.). Providers of WiFi access (like TMobile) are adding robust security options to eliminate this threat, but not all.

The punchline? Set your firewall, password protect your home wireless network, and choose a provider that offers access software with built-in security.

Magic Weight Loss?

Doing a report on magician Harry Houdini when I was 10 years old did two things: excited me about magic and made me realize it was all an illusion. As a consequence, I’ve spent much of my life being an optimist and opportunist…tempered with a healthy skepticism.

Like hundreds of millions around the world who struggle with their weight,  I was intrigued by a 60 Minutes program in November of 2004 that highlighted a seemingly magic way for people to manage hunger and eat up to 1,000 calories less per day. The magic? A somewhat rare and native South African “succulent” (that looks like a cactus) called Hoodia Gordonii.

Seems that the San people of the Kalahari desert (a tribe of hunter-gatherers with a culture and history going back thousands of years using native plants for medicinal purposes) have been using the plant for centuries to help ward off pain, hunger and thirst when the Bushmen made long trips in the desert.

So what happened when 60 Minutes’ Lesley Stahl ate some?

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Apple + Sony = ?

macminiIn October of 1999 I was watching a Steve Jobs keynote where he was introducing a new lineup of iMac’s. Jobs paid an atypical, reverent, and almost loving homage to Sony founder Akio Morita. At the time, it was crystal clear to me that he’d done an honorable thing — that was also good business.

Having worked myself for two Japanese companies (Pioneer Electronics and Panasonic Comm & Sys Co), I’m acutely aware of the deep and profound impact such an honorable and public tribute means to Japanese people (especially those who so revere someone of the stature of Akio Morita). Why was this good business? Sony is the closest company on the planet to Apple in innovation, design and aesthetics, Apple outsources all their manufacturing, and no other company could offer an innovator like Steve Jobs the ability to deliver unbeatable world-class products. If Steve Jobs had any intention of one day collaborating with Sony, it was good business to start the relationship strong.

I’ve thought about the introduction of the Mac mini and that it’s probably a product intended for its target: iPod owners who use PC’s but haven’t considered a Mac due to its expense. It also struck me as yet another example of good business — inviting up Sony President Kunitake Ando to speak to the assembled masses at MacWorld — but I instantly recognized it as a simple prelude to bigger things.

I think there are bigger things on the horizon…


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Internet Evolution: Fear of Terrorism Only?

Interesting report from the Pew Internet & American Life Project called “The Future of the Internet” Curiously, publications such as PCWorld have pulled out only one primary area of the report and are focused on the cyberattack prediction only:

“According to a survey entitled, “The Future of the Internet” recently released by the Pew Internet and American Life Project, American’s growing dependence on the Internet is making it a flashing electronic target for terrorists.”

This is only one likely scenario but we’d better accelerate our efforts and funding on combating cyberterrorism or other smart leaders will quit the fight. Most agree that America’s internet infrastructure is too open and besides…we can’t even fully protect our borders!  How can we truly protect the thousands and thousands of miles of fiber and other internet infrastructure, let alone the insecurity of heterogeneous systems where most people use the same operating system?  I’ve got more questions than answers — and I believe it is imperative to protect an infrastructure upon which more and more of our economy and communication depends — but let’s be pragmatic about it.

Where’s the good news in the Pew report?
Here’s just one other prediction abstract from the same study that optimistically points to a brighter possibility for a richer, diverse information experience in the home (and opportunity for those participating in providing services to consumers): “By 2014, all media, including audio, video, print, and voice, will stream in and out of the home or office via the internet. Computers that coordinate and control video games, audio, and video will become the centerpiece of the living room and will link to networked devices around the household, replacing the television’s central place in the home.”

I believe and am optimistic about our future on the internet as evidenced by my first post, “Video games and the internet bubble. Is it time for dot com…the sequel?.” We have to be smart and prudent about protecting ourselves but I also believe that too many in the media are putting a “the sky is falling” spin on everything — which I believe PCWorld and others are doing with this relatively benign report from Pew.