In my work as a strategist, it’s incumbent upon me to look at a question, problem or situation from a 360 degree perspective. I gather as much data as I can, connect the dots in the smartest and wisest way I’m able, kick around ideas with people smarter than me and then I create scenarios.

After doing this, it’s pretty clear which scenario’s are most likely to occur, and it’s apparent which strategies I collaborate on with leaders (for companies for whom I’ve worked and now for clients) are ones where we should place our bets.

Though this is probably a risk for me in the circles in which I run and for those that follow this blog, my chips have been laid down on a ‘blue scenario’ for months and I’m endorsing and voting for Obama. 

As I’ve moved from slightly right of center to slightly left politically — mainly by reading everything I could get my hands on for the last 8 years through my struggles to stay on top of every issue — I’ve rarely come across such a cogent case for ones endorsement as the one released today by a deep, strategic thinker, Tim O’Reilly.

Considerably troubled for over seven years (though long considering myself a Republican and someone who didn’t identify with populism thought or the Democratic party), I long ago decided on change, and that decision has only gained strength in recent months as I’ve witnessed how Obama has gone forth exhibiting leadership, surrounding himself with world class advisors and releasing sound fiscal and public policy positions, being open and transparent (and yes, leveraging social media and engaging the next generation wisely), and just barely dipping-his-toe in the waters of push-back when he’s been character-attacked.

One thing O’Reilly didn’t mention in his post is something that I’ve been puzzled by for eight years, and see as THE problematic continuation of the last eight years if there was a McCain presidency. The lack of vision and leadership.

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One thing that hasn’t been discussed enough during the explosion in gas prices, the financial meltdown, is the impact on multiple industries with consumer changes in behavior. Sellers of non-imperative products are finding it rough going: car manufacturers to their dealers; insurance companies and consumer electronics; clothing and, frankly, retailers of all types; the tactical behavior changes people are making to save money are going to really make an impact this Fall selling season.

I’ve been observing my own behavior changes as I struggle to become more energy self-sufficient while still living in a housing development with pretty stringent convenants (would be tough, for instance, to stick a windmill in my backyard or solar panels on my roof!). Fortunately, my incentives to be ‘greener’ and more self-sufficient outweigh the inconveniences.

For readers of this blog, you’ll recall I purchased a Neuton rechargeable lawn mower this summer and posted about it here. For the same reason our family recycles like crazy (it takes two cans to hold everything and our trashcan is always half full), I bought it in order to start the process of making ourselves increasingly ‘green’ while experiencing what it’s like to be dependent on the substantially weaker energy we can pack into batteries vs. what’s in a lawnmower tank filled with gasoline.

The mower has precipitated a behavior change in me. Since I mulch, it sometimes take two passes to properly cut and make sure the grass is dispersed. It’s frustrating since it’s turned a 50 minute lawn cutting adventure in to nearly two hours (actually I learned to cut it once now…but have to cut every four days instead of once a week). I also have to make certain both batteries are charged otherwise I can’t cut the lawn in one evening, and I’ve forgotten a couple of times delaying my ability to cut the lawn by a day!

This week I’m taking delivery of a new Prius and will be giving up my Mercedes E320 CDI (the diesel version). Yes, the MB got great gas mileage, was safer, more comfortable and with more snob-appeal, but the Prius is the best compromise between fuel efficiency and comfort I could find (and I plan to hack it with non-destructive hacks like this one) and is my inevitable step toward a plugin hybrid when they’re more widely available (and when, like it’s rumored with Toyota, there will be step-up models that are more luxurious along with a possible separate Prius brand).

What does this all mean for you? If you’re delivering web applications, using them or trying to get them adopted within your company or organization, you must consider behavior changes necessary for successful adoption since few people are strategic goofballs like me, willing to compromise and step-down, in order to step-up and be more green (although one could argue I’m NOT an early adopter when it comes to cars but hey, I’m in Minnesota and like substantial cars for our winters).

It takes alot longer than you think — barring a crisis like gas price spikes or a financial meltdown — to see people change their behavior all on their own. Though it’s possible that in our current state of global flux we have a golden opportunity to introduce new things requiring behavior modifications (and people should be more open to compromise and changes), there is also a limit to what people can change all at once, so tread lightly while giving strong consideration to the implications of behavior change on whatever you’re delivering to yourself or for others.

Like you probably are, I’m trying to fathom the depth of the global financial crisis and ultimately what it means for my family and I. Unless you are a hedge fund manager who successfully shorted companies and are now sitting on a pile of cash, you probably are worried and fearful too.

We’ll eventually get out of this mess, but it’s brought to the forefront something I’ve been thinking about for a long, long time: that peer-to-peer production (think Wikipedia, crowdsourcing, et al) is fundamentally changing how we create and exchange value in the world.

Huh? Isn’t that socialism or at least communism Borsch? No, I don’t think so and many others don’t either. In many discussions with people much smarter than me (with advanced degrees in economics or folks like Peter Drucker who wrote Post Capitalist Society in the early 1990′s), I’m pleased and a bit surprised that more of them also recognize that we are right-smack-dab in the middle of a shift in value creation, distribution of value, and the beginnings of the end of scarcity.

First an anecdote: on a Star Trek Next Generation episode, the Enterprise comes across a ship with most people dead, but there are three survivors in suspended animation. They awaken these three who’ve been like this for 300 years. The woman in the group is stunned and sad she’ll never see her son again, but the Enterprise crew has discovered his descendants. One guy was a country singer who gets Picard to use the replicator and get him a famous Gibson guitar. The last guy is SO EXCITED at the prospect of getting back to Earth so he can see how compounding has worked on his investments. “I’ll be extremely wealthy,” he cries out.

This brings to a head something about Picard’s century and material value. Picard tries to get him to understand that “there is no more ‘want’ in the world” since they can make anything instantly and money is no longer an exchange of value (though it’s never exactly clear how economics work in their time and how people are incented and motivated). This guy finally realizes that he is going to have to adapt to a world and time where anything material can be created at the touch of a button, and he’ll have to find other motivators.

Aren’t we there in some ways right now?

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