When We Run Out of Oil…

If you pay attention to any of the relevant facts about oil production (i.e., supply), oil consumption, and why it’s likely we’re in the Middle East fighting a “war” (e.g., to deploy a strategic military position to ensure a steady flow of oil), then you probably do like I do: waver between complacency and sheer terror over the prospect of running out of oil.

I’ve been following oil geeks at The Oil Drum for some time, and while they clearly give solid and deep analysis of all the current data and conjecture in the oil industry, it’s this “Crash Course 17A-Peak Oil” video by Chris Martenson (from his Crash Course on economics) that I’ve embedded below and is one that will give you a very concise snapshot of where we are in the world with respect to peak oil.

Having learned more than I ever wanted to know about the looming fate of us all in a world soon hungry for energy, I gave up a 34mpg Mercedes diesel in favor of a Toyota Prius — one I routinely get 48mpg in as an average — since I can see strategically that the world’s dependence on a finite resource is accelerating while that resource is dwindling and getting more expensive to deliver. Not a pretty combination. It’s also why I’ll be buying a plug-in hybrid in the next year or two when I find one that fits my strategic and tactical needs for transportation. Gas prices in the next two years will only go one way….up.

Bottom line? If you’re not thinking about your business and personal life in a world with shrinking energy reserves, then you’re not paying attention and need to be….now.

Why Wikileaks Matters

If you’re not paying attention to what is happening on the internet — warrantless wiretapping by the NSA, Google pulling out of China — then you should feel ashamed unless you’re an ultra-conservative who just loves to see autocratic or dictatorial governments in power doing whatever they deem necessary, regardless of the rule of law.

The reasons the framers of our US Constitution were so careful about ensuring there was a checks and balance in place with our three branches of government (executive, legislative, judicial) was to thwart attempts to seize or consolidate power. The problem? The internet is creating a cross-country, cross-cultural and cross-legal platform that is causing all sorts of angst among the intelligence agencies, militaries and governmental bodies throughout the world.

But if you believe (as I do) that sunlight is the best antiseptic, it’s an imperative that there are places like Wikileaks, Cryptome and groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) that are willing to stand up for transparency, freedom, justice and legality in the 21st century and be places where whistleblowers can be confident of help in bringing to light injustices, crimes against humanity or violations of our basic freedoms or privacy.

The video below is one of the best snippets I’ve seen yet on one of these organizations, Wikileaks, that is a repository for leaked information and, in my and other’s view, a key place to ensure information needing to be leaked is leaked.

These leaks are submitted by whistleblowers anywhere in the world, people that would usually be too fearful to come forward. If you don’t think leaks and whistleblowing are important, then just remember that one led Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein to break the Watergate story, ultimately bringing down President Nixon and forever changing the level of trust the citizenry has in the executive branch.

Apparently there is significant surveillance and covert activities focused on shutting down Wikileaks being done by the US intelligence apparatus because of a “…a film exposing a U.S. massacre we will release at the U.S. National Press Club on April 5th” and, most likely, because Wikileaks is a thorn under the saddle of several countries, not just the USA.

If you knew that I did this, you might ask why I just donated to Wikileaks or am a consistent donor to EFF. It’s because of my deep desire to ensure that liberty, freedom, democracy and justice prevails…no matter what the cost. For all I’ve received from living in a country for which my previous generation fought and died to keep these at the forefront, it’s the least I can do for them and for my children…

…let alone for oppressed people in other countries to whom we’re increasingly connected via the internet that is making a Wikileaks possible!

Watch this video about Wikileaks and decide for yourself:

White House Screening of “The Pacific”

My respect for Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks has never been higher and I’m looking forward to seeing their new project, The Pacific. It’s on HBO which I currently don’t subscribe to, but will just for this miniseries.

I follow the White House blog and came across this post. It seemed interesting enough to blog about since it gives Spielberg & Hanks’ motivation behind the making of this miniseries and is kind of a fun peek behind the scenes.

The Happiest Slaughterhouse!

From the company that brings you Spam®, Hormel, comes this 1965 video showing meat processing in all it’s glory (save for the killing of the animals, blood, and e-coli). Makes you want a little bacon after watching it (not really).

Watching this video, I was a bit taken aback at how happy everything seemed but with a lack of joy on the faces of Hormel workers, cutting apart pigs and knowing that today, most of these workers are Hispanic and not the 40-something white males of European descent depicted in this happiest of slaughterhouses in southern Minnesota.

Bonus feature: see Spam being made but alas, no factory worker falls in to the hot dog grinder nor are any social media people shown at a breakfast pleased that bacon has arrived:

Coffee is for Closers

Do you deserve coffee?

At least a dozen times at sales meetings over the past 15 years or so, many sales leaders have trotted out this video snippet from the movie Glengarry Glen Ross and then expounded on its virtues, clearly using it as a great kick in the seat of our pants as salespeople.  I’m here to point out how that this clip (after the jump and NSFW, by the way) is relevant to anyone who has to produce…whether you’re a developer/coder, factory worker, farmer, call center or support person, or in any field where results matter.

Alec Baldwin is on screen for less than seven minutes and, in my and many other people’s views, his is the defining performance of that movie and incredibly powerful. The premise, according to the Wikipedia article about the film, “Early in the movie Blake (Alec Baldwin) is sent by Mitch and Murray (the faceless owners of the real estate office in which the main characters work), to motivate them by announcing, in a torrent of verbal abuse, that only the top two sellers will be allowed the more promising “Glengarry” leads, and everyone else will be fired.“ This confrontation sets up the rest of the film: the motivations that the characters feel that this rainy night is a make-or-break one; the reason the incident with the Glengarry leads that occurs later on; and the promise that — if only each salesman was better at closing like Blake — that they could achieve the same sorts of results as a guy that made $920k, drove an $80k BMW and sports a $25k gold Rolex.

Anyone whose been in sales for any length of time knows that there are many variables that enable one to achieve wildly successful sales numbers. An enterprise software salesperson in New York, L.A. or Chicago has more opportunity than one in Kansas City, for example, and top performers are usually in major markets. Same thing holds true for those who sell into vertical markets where they canvas accounts across many geographies.

But any salesperson who has been even modestly successful also knows one fundamental truth, and it’s a truth that cuts across all professions and labors.

[Read more...]

This Kind of Guy is the Future of Education

Salman Khan of KhanAcademy.org

I’m biased, but there’s no question that I fundamentally believe that the future of education is online. Talking to my daughter yesterday, a student at the University of Minnesota, she’d mentioned how dismayed she was having to take the bus to campus, walk to the one class she had that day, sit in a lecture, and then go home. “What a waste of time,” she said, “But I have to go since my prof takes attendance.” So I inquired if they streamed the lecture online. “Are you KIDDING ME!?!” she exclaimed. “Most of these professors and TA’s can barely hook up their computers!

What you’re about to view is an excellent example of the types of teaching that are exploding on the ‘net. From Instructables to Howcast (the latter is where I learned how to fix the overflow valve on my toilet) to this young man, Salman Khan of Khan Academy, most of this sort of teaching will be pooh-poohed by traditionalists and seen as augmenting existing meatspace education in buildings.

Fortunately, people like Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen see things differently. Christensen has described the three stages of disruption, the status quo will first see disruptors like Khan as “crappy” and ignore them, then they’ll become “less crappy” and early adopters will flock to them, and when they become “good enough” is the tipping point when disruptors kill status quo industries and yes, education is an industry since they still teach using an industrial age, factory model.

Watch this six minute video (discovered via Sid Yadav) and you’ll see what I mean about what one disruptor guy is doing for math education:

London Photography Will Get You Arrested

Having spent time in the U.K., I’ve grown to love the country and especially London. At the same time I’ve been quite aware that the London police have continually been cracking down on “suspicious” photographers and yet another confrontation happened to what seems like a nice, reasonable guy out to photograph a Christmas celebration (via Cory Doctorow at BoingBoing) and he used his DSLR’s video function to record his arrest.

While I feel like I have 50% of the facts (e.g., we don’t see what he was doing as he photographed so can’t ascertain anything about his behavior) I still applaud him standing up to the police and not automatically handing over “his details” (i.e., his name, ID, etc.) without them telling him why he was being detained and specifically what he’d done.

For a country that could’ve easily succumbed to the tyranny of the Nazi regime — a government that didn’t allow their own citizens to do anything without having “their papers” on them at all times — I must admit not appreciating the irony in London police trampling on their citizen’s civil liberties. I do appreciate the tensions in London, what with their experiences with the IRA and other horrific acts of terrorism.

But anyone with half-a-brain and any technical chops knows how incredibly simple it would be for real terrorists to surreptiously photograph any spot, building or crowd without anyone being the wiser so it’s highly likely that this continued confrontational attitude by London police is akin to the security theater in the United States.

It also makes me wonder about my own behavior on a family trip to London a few years ago where I was probably “suspicious” as I photographed like mad near Downing Street, all the governmental buildings along Whitehall, waiting for my wife and kids as they souvenir shopped as I lurked by a pillar in Trafalgar Square snapping photos with my Nikon DSLR, and essentially playing the role of obnoxious tourist.

What will I be able to do next time I’m in London? For instance, I enjoy snapping photos of many things: alleyways; police cars; doorways; street perspectives; people; and crowds. Is my behavior going to cause confrontations with the London police? Probably, so I’ll undoubtedly be seeing the inside of a London jail but one that isn’t exactly geared to tourists!

A Penny Saved is Actually $0.17 Cents

This is the new design of the U.S. penny being minted now. The kicker? According to this March 2008 ABC News article, “It costs almost 1.7 cents to make a penny,according to U.S. Mint director Ed Moy. Each year, the U.S. Mint makes 8 billion pennies, at a cost of $130 million. American taxpayers lose nearly $50 million in the process. The penny’s not alone. It costs nearly 10 cents to make a nickel.

Why not just ditch the penny? “One reason there is a lasting attachment to those coins is because they are a part of our country’s history,” Moy said in that article. I’ll accept that or some of the other things I’ve read that it will kickstart inflation. Why? Because sellers will “round up” and not “round down” with prices so there will be an immediate jump in costs for everything from toothpaste to TVs.

How could technology make our paying with pennies more efficient? With more and more of us walking around with smartphones, micropayments may be one answer. This would be a method where each of us would have an account that incremental sums (i.e., amounts in pennies) would be sent to or subtracted from during a transaction. I shudder, however, when I think about all the systemic and behavioral changes something like that would require.

Funny (and admittedly tangential) story about pennies happened when I was 16 years old. There was a guy who owned a gas station near our house and he was a complete jerk and especially so to young people. My friend Jeff and I were in his Mom’s car and stopped for gas. The guy inadvertently put in $10 worth in the tank and we had $5 with us and Jeff had told him he wanted $5 worth…but the guy then blew his stack and threatened to call the police on us until we agreed to go get the $5 and come back (he also wrote down Jeff’s license number).

We came back an hour later and Jeff handed him a jar with 500 pennies. “Goddammit!” the owner screamed. “I don’t have to accept these pennies!” but Jeff put it on the counter and we turned around and left. The owner never did anything and, in fact, was out of business two years later (I assume for being a jerk and driving customers away).

When I think about micropayments, I’d actually like having an online slush fund for paying a penny, nickel or dime to read an article online. This would be trivial to do and might help fund an otherwise declining media base. But another thing to consider with payments becoming virtual are the privacy, free speech and other concerns. For a complete and exhaustive paper on the subject, read The Digital Imprimatur by Autodesk founder John Walker from 2003.

GoodGuide: Holding Producers Accountable

When I wrote yesterday’s post Food, Inc.: I will never look at dinner the same way again I intended to point out some tools you can use to make informed decisions about what you eat and the companies that are producing your foods.

GoodGuide is both a website and a free iPhone/iPod Touch application which allows we mobile users to “simply scan the barcode of the product and immediately see detailed ratings for health, environment and social responsibility for more than 50,000 products and companies. GoodGuide provides this information about personal care, household chemical, toy and food products for free on your iPhone / iPod Touch and is adding thousands of products every month. By making information about consumer products transparent, GoodGuide’s goal is to help people shop smarter and motivate companies to offer even better products.

On their homepage you can learn about the issues, see food recalls and other related news, and my favorite thing to do, browse ratings of other products. If you signup you can create a “Favorites” list and begin amassing a database of your preferred products.

Besides the obvious power this is putting in the hands of consumers, what’s most interesting to me (and to our clients) is how empowered consumers will likely have applications that go far beyond food product and the food distribution companies. Imagine you’re a furniture manufacturer and consumers can make choices to buy products from companies that don’t use formaldehyde. What would you do if your sales started to drop? You bet….start making formaldehyde-free furniture. (For more see the Wall Street Journal on “New Bill Could Limit Formaldehyde in Furniture” and SFGate’s article “What’s in furniture? It’s enough to make you sick“).

So if you’re primarily interested in being an empowered consumer, download the free GoodGuide and apps like it. If you’re in the business of producing goods or selling services that rely on other’s products, you’d better understand the entire supply chain of those goods and get ready for heightened awareness and accelerated choices by consumers!

Food, Inc.: I will never look at dinner the same way again

One of the benefits of Netflix on-demand streaming is the number of documentaries I’ve had access to and am watching, one of which my daughter and I watched last night called Food, Inc., and the movie troubled both of us and I’m still thinking about it this morning.

I can’t find the reference for the article this morning, but there was a research study I read a few years ago that compared the “cost” of a calorie 200 years ago (what it took to grow, harvest, cook and eat a calorie) vs. the cost in effort and energy today. It was significantly greater in the past, of course, and the other statement that stuck in my mind was that the typical American household had more calories in their cupboards than the typical family ate in a month in 1850 (I’ll keep trying to find the data and do an update).

Watching this movie pointed out that the efficiencies of our industrial food system, combined with farm subsidies that keep costs for commodities at artificially low amounts, have kept costs low throughout the food creation and distribution system. While cheap calories have helped America become the envy of the world as we feed millions of us and others around the world, it has also caused us to opt for processed foods over raw veggies and meals that we have to cook and made half of we Americans fat (and I can attest to that!).

Usually I try not to be an alarmist, but the opacity of the industrial food system has become quite troublesome and this movie pointed it out better than anything I’ve ever watched. This is not my attempt to vilify the food industrial complex, but rather ensure that more of us demand to know what’s happening up the food creation chain so we know what we’re eating. I’ve often said that if people could take one tour of a cow, pig or chicken slaughterhouse we’d have a helluva lot of vegetarians in America, but same goes for the amount of crap that’s in our foods.

Take a peek at this trailer and I’d encourage you to rent it and then you can head over to their Food, Inc. website and take action. If it doesn’t open your eyes and change your habits, I’ll wave when I see you in the supermarket as you buy your big bag of Doritos and Jimmy Dean sausage for supper.