Self-Driving Cars by 2030 Will Decimate the Auto Industry BUT Will Save Consumers $1 Trillion & Grow The Economy!
A new research report by the think-tank RethinkX was just published today and has some startling forecasts (my bold and in red):
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
The impacts of TaaS they predict will be both exciting and frightening — if you’re in the transportation business — but the savings for the rest of us (and increased GDP growth) is amazing (again, my bold):
- Savings on transportation costs will result in a permanent boost in annual disposable income for U.S. households, totaling $1 trillion by 2030. Consumer spending is by far the largest driver of the economy, comprising about 71% of total GDP and driving business and job growth throughout the economy.
- Productivity gains as a result of reclaimed driving hours will boost GDP by an additional $1 trillion.
- As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million to 44 million, opening up vast tracts of land for other, more productive uses. Nearly 100 million existing vehicles will be abandoned as they become economically unviable.
- Demand for new vehicles will plummet: 70% fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year. This could result in total disruption of the car value chain, with car dealers, maintenance and insurance companies suffering almost complete destruction.
Besides all of the obvious downsides to the Trump Administration opening up National Parks and federal lands to oil drilling and mineral exploration —all while decimating the Environmental Protection Agency and labeling climate change a hoax — the positive economic impacts of using solar for energy production, having autonomous vehicles (especially those that are electric) is just smart (which likely explains why the Trump Administration is against those…but I digress).
There is so much more detail in this report that it is definitely worth your time to go and download it: